Public observability layer
Reform Impact Monitor
Deterministic pre/post observed-movement comparison · Evidence View primary · Dashboard View secondary visual interpretation.
Reform Impact Monitor · mandatory disclaimer
Observed-movement comparison only. Reform overlays are descriptive context and do not establish causation. Not a regulatory determination.
REGISTRY GAPNot yet registered as verified public evidence
The values on the Reform Impact Monitor are derived analytical products produced by deterministic pre/post observed-movement outputs derived from the locked NSW observation set. They are not yet registered as active Evidence Registry records and are presented for reference only. They should not be treated as verified public evidence. Once registered, each value will render with its status, confidence, period, jurisdiction, source, method, limitations, and provenance envelope hash.
RFM-2023-ENTITLEMENT-CAP-FORFEITURE · POLICY
Statewide entitlement cap reduction by forfeiture
Reform date 2023-06-01
Source citation
Reform ID
RFM-2023-ENTITLEMENT-CAP-FORFEITURE
Reform type
POLICY
Reform date
2023-06-01
Affected scope
ALL_EGM_LICENSED_VENUES_STATEWIDE
Source documentNSW Hospitality and Racing Strategy 2023–2025 · entitlement-cap reduction by forfeiture
Source referenceStatewide entitlement cap reduced via forfeiture from June 2023 onward
Expected observable metrics
- statewide_egm_count_total
- lga_egm_count_total
Pre / post observed movement · state grain
Observed-movement percent resolved via Evidence Registry.
Pre / post observed movement · STATE · ALL
Observable movement detectedPre median EGM
20
Post median EGM
22
Observed movement
+10.00%
Pre / post venues
2258 / 2180
Pre anchors: 2022-06-01, 2022-07-01, 2022-11-01, 2022-12-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
observed_movement_10.00_pct
Observed-movement comparison only. Not a regulatory determination.
Confidence inputs · limitations · lineage
Confidence inputs
- pre_period_observations: 4
- post_period_observations: 4
- pre_venues_observed: 2258
- post_venues_observed: 2180
- pre_window_completeness: 1
- post_window_completeness: 1
Limitations
- Pre/post comparison shows OBSERVED movement only. Reform causation is NEVER inferred.
- EGM net-profit dollars are not published by the source authority — only rank order and EGM count.
- Pre-2019 records reside in a separate historical archive and are excluded from current-window comparisons.
Methodology → /reform-impact-monitor/methodology · Lineage → stage4:venue_quarter_observations · Causation → none
Pre / post observed movement · STATE · CLUB
Observable movement detectedPre median EGM
29
Post median EGM
30
Observed movement
+3.45%
Pre / post venues
1023 / 1006
Pre anchors: 2022-06-01, 2022-07-01, 2022-11-01, 2022-12-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
observed_movement_3.45_pct
Observed-movement comparison only. Not a regulatory determination.
Confidence inputs · limitations · lineage
Confidence inputs
- pre_period_observations: 4
- post_period_observations: 4
- pre_venues_observed: 1023
- post_venues_observed: 1006
- pre_window_completeness: 1
- post_window_completeness: 1
Limitations
- Pre/post comparison shows OBSERVED movement only. Reform causation is NEVER inferred.
- EGM net-profit dollars are not published by the source authority — only rank order and EGM count.
- Pre-2019 records reside in a separate historical archive and are excluded from current-window comparisons.
Methodology → /reform-impact-monitor/methodology · Lineage → stage4:venue_quarter_observations · Causation → none
Pre / post observed movement · STATE · HOTEL
Observable movement detectedPre median EGM
18
Post median EGM
19
Observed movement
+5.56%
Pre / post venues
1235 / 1174
Pre anchors: 2022-06-01, 2022-07-01, 2022-11-01, 2022-12-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
Post anchors: 2023-11-01, 2023-12-01, 2024-02-01, 2024-03-01
observed_movement_5.56_pct
Observed-movement comparison only. Not a regulatory determination.
Confidence inputs · limitations · lineage
Confidence inputs
- pre_period_observations: 4
- post_period_observations: 4
- pre_venues_observed: 1235
- post_venues_observed: 1174
- pre_window_completeness: 1
- post_window_completeness: 1
Limitations
- Pre/post comparison shows OBSERVED movement only. Reform causation is NEVER inferred.
- EGM net-profit dollars are not published by the source authority — only rank order and EGM count.
- Pre-2019 records reside in a separate historical archive and are excluded from current-window comparisons.
Methodology → /reform-impact-monitor/methodology · Lineage → stage4:venue_quarter_observations · Causation → none
LGA reform-aligned trends · top 20 by observed movement
| LGA | Observed movement | Pre / post venues | Assessment | Registry record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berrigan | +140.91% | 8 / 6 | Observable movement detected | EV-62F2-D71716-3060 |
| Glen Innes Severn | +120.00% | 5 / 4 | Observable movement detected | EV-91F6-84B5C2-4633 |
| Inverell | +50.00% | 9 / 7 | Observable movement detected | EV-6B2A-D89AC7-de33 |
| Hunters Hill | +38.46% | 3 / 2 | Observable movement detected | EV-CBD3-7FCC08-14c2 |
| Junee | +36.36% | 4 / 3 | Observable movement detected | EV-98FB-E9EAB3-8861 |
| Bathurst Regional | +33.33% | 16 / 14 | Observable movement detected | EV-1439-84F006-3c77 |
| Kempsey | +33.33% | 20 / 19 | Observable movement detected | EV-085E-E08F80-662b |
| Snowy Monaro Regional | +31.25% | 16 / 14 | Observable movement detected | EV-C914-856D13-ca55 |
| Parkes | +31.25% | 15 / 14 | Observable movement detected | EV-940A-8E8037-78be |
| Snowy Valleys | +25.00% | 16 / 11 | Observable movement detected | EV-8FF5-6C99CD-3401 |
| Moree Plains | +21.88% | 10 / 8 | Observable movement detected | EV-929B-704472-2375 |
| Oberon | +21.43% | 5 / 4 | Observable movement detected | EV-0CAE-EC6DC8-dc12 |
| Orange | +20.69% | 16 / 14 | Observable movement detected | EV-1D29-0AC6AB-2b2b |
| Narrabri | +20.00% | 13 / 12 | Observable movement detected | EV-7340-4B9CEC-ea16 |
| Inner West | +18.75% | 65 / 62 | Observable movement detected | EV-65AD-15D793-7f9a |
| Lismore | +18.18% | 19 / 15 | Observable movement detected | EV-08C7-445C30-11a9 |
| Sutherland | +17.65% | 38 / 37 | Observable movement detected | EV-47A9-187104-f551 |
| Bega Valley | +16.67% | 18 / 16 | Observable movement detected | EV-F440-69E19D-bb76 |
| Richmond Valley | +16.67% | 14 / 12 | Observable movement detected | EV-004B-B552BD-da84 |
| Forbes | +16.67% | 7 / 5 | Observable movement detected | EV-54B4-4549DF-b110 |
Showing top-20 LGAs by observed-movement percent. The full LGA list is available at LGA reform-aligned trends.