Reform Impact Monitor
Observed-movement comparison only. Reform overlays are descriptive context and do not establish causation. Not a regulatory determination.
The values on the Reform Impact Monitor are derived analytical products produced by deterministic pre/post observed-movement outputs derived from the locked NSW observation set. They are not yet registered as active Evidence Registry records and are presented for reference only. They should not be treated as verified public evidence. Once registered, each value will render with its status, confidence, period, jurisdiction, source, method, limitations, and provenance envelope hash.
Methodology
Stage 8 methodology for the Reform Impact Monitor. Deterministic pre/post comparison of observed EGM counts at state grain and LGA grain. No prediction, no causation, no policy effectiveness rating.
- Comparison window: 4 publication anchors on each side of the reform date.
- Minimum periods per side for a non-too-early assessment: 3.
- No-material threshold: ±2% on overall observed movement.
- Dedupe: per (canonical_venue_id, period_anchor), Type B (net_profit) takes precedence over Type C (per-machine) where both are published.
- Aggregation: median of per-venue EGM counts across the window.
- Reform registry version: 1.0.0.
- Observable movement detected
- No material observable movement
- Mixed movement
- Insufficient data
- Too early to assess
Only these five labels are permitted. No other classification language is supported by Stage 8.
- deterministic_computation_only
- no_prediction
- no_causation_claim
- no_intervention_recommendation
- no_harm_forecast
- no_venue_danger_scoring
- no_hidden_models
- no_autonomous_classification
- evidence_view_is_primary
- dashboard_view_never_removes_lineage
- every_reform_carries_source_citation
- assessment_vocabulary_is_fixed
- recent_reforms_may_be_too_early